The 2022 midterm outlook for Democrats looks much more positive with FiveThirtyEight now predicting that Dems have a 57% chance of holding the Senate. This is up significantly from June, when Democrats had only a 40 to 45% chance at holding the upper chamber. It appears as though Roe vs. Wade getting overturned along with a renewed discussion surrounding gun safety regulations has led to the shift in the polling and forecasting. Control in the Senate is currently split 50/50 with Vice President Kamala Harris serving as the tie breaking vote. If Democrats can pick up just two or three more seats, they'll be able to get much more of President Biden's agenda passed and possibly even abolish the filibuster allowing them to get a long list of progressive priorities signed into law. Ultimately, the midterm results will depend on voter turnout, and winning will be a challenge given historical trends, Biden's relatively low approval rating, and uncertain economic conditions.
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